Nearly two decades have passed since the development of new energy vehicles. In recent years, the world's major automobile powers have expressed their promotion to national strategies. In particular, some countries in the European Union have not only put forward a “prohibition of sales of fuel oil schedules”, but also have risen to a specific level. At the legal level, some “limit line” measures should be taken at the same time. China is more active, more active, and more systematically promoting the development of new energy vehicles. Here, a reanalysis of the status, characteristics, and development trends of China's new energy vehicles is provided for reference by peers.
1. Compared with automobile power countries, the central and local governments have strong financial support. This feature is even more prominent.
1 China regards new energy vehicles as one of the seven strategic industries. General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed that the development of new energy vehicles is the only way for China to move from a large automobile country to a powerful automobile country. The top national leaders have called for the development of new energy vehicles. The development of new energy vehicles is particularly prominent among China's seven strategic industries.
2 The development policies of China's new energy vehicles are relatively sound and more systematic. The central government and local governments simultaneously subsidize the production cost difference for new energy vehicles, reduce the exemption on purchase tax, subsidize the operation of new energy buses, and set special license plates for new energy vehicles, giving priority to road rights. This kind of support policy is not available in other countries.
3 With the encouragement of many positive policies, the demand for China's new energy vehicle market has spiraled upwards, one year at a time. In 2016, 500,000 vehicles, 800,000 vehicles in 2017, and over 1 million vehicles in 2018 will be planned for 2 million in 2020.
3 At the time of the rapid development of new energy vehicles in China, the Chinese government is also beginning to study new incentive policies to promote the development of China's new energy vehicles in the direction of intelligent networked vehicles. The Chinese government’s plans for the development of intelligent networked vehicles are specific The embodiment.
The Chinese model for developing new energy vehicles with these characteristics has become a sample of the world’s automotive powers.
Second, China's technological route for the development of new energy vehicles is different from other automobile powers.
1 The technical route of US-based car companies is mainly the development of hybrid electric vehicles with pure electric and extended range;
The technical route of the 2nd Japan and South Korea car companies is mainly the development of hybrid, pure electric and fuel cell vehicles;
3 German car company's technical route is mainly the development of pure electric and plug-in hybrid cars;
4 Chinese car companies mainly focus on pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, taking into account the fuel cell vehicle route.
It should be noted that China's development of new energy vehicle routes was finally clarified, and it was also a process of constant exploration and exploration. China is not a car power and must learn from the automotive power. But how to learn? At the beginning, he advocated more studies in Japan and used hybrid technology as a breakthrough point. He learned from the United States and increased the range of hybrid vehicles as the end result. He learned from Germany and focused on plug-in hybrid vehicles.
The Chinese use their own philosophy to guide their own practice, to learn and not to learn, and finally to form their own technical route:
1 Taking the pure electric vehicle as the main breakthrough point, exerting power on public transport vehicles, and achieving the world's first-ever Shenzhen electric bus to achieve pure electric performance, and obtaining the world's first Wuhan bus (BRT) 18 meters all electrified Achievements; Based on the scale industrialization of the A00-class passenger car, the world’s first Taiyuan taxi has achieved all-electricity.
2 With the goal of catching up with plug-in hybrid vehicles, the advantages of pure electric vehicle technology and fuel vehicle technology are accepted. The development of plug-in hybrid vehicles in China has also achieved mass production and achieved similar technical results.
3 Take into account the development of fuel cell vehicles, that is, fuel cell vehicles must be developed in China. But how to develop it? On the way to exploration, the Chinese are consolidating the development of pure electric vehicles? Is parallel development with pure electric vehicles? Or replace, subvert the pure electric car model?
Third, why is China's development of new energy automotive technology different from other automobile powers?
1 China has been developing the automotive industry for decades. With many lessons, it has paid a lot of tuition and has accumulated a lot of successful experiences.
2 The threshold of high-end technology for fuel vehicles is already high, and many technologies have been firmly controlled by advanced countries. China has been tracking, but it cannot surpass it.
3 The technical threshold of pure electric vehicles is similar to everyone, and there are no first-mover advantages for countries with developed fuel vehicles compared to China. However, China's power battery industrialization has certain comparative advantages. For example, China's power battery industry chain is relatively complete, and now Europe does not have a factory that produces power batteries in batches.
4 On the technical roadmap of a homogenized power vehicle, overall, fuel technology dominates and electric technology is auxiliary. The Chinese government has completely abandoned the hybrid technology route and implemented the plug-in (or incremental) technology route, which is in line with the pure electric drive technology route.
5 The electric car is the basic trend. It shows that the fuel vehicle technology can no longer meet the requirements of modern (future) social development. Although fuel trucks are still the main vehicles, especially cargo trucks, for quite a long time, their orderly substitution is an objective trend.
6 China's development of new energy vehicles is a strategic choice and positioning at the national level. It is not an expedient measure and it naturally requires a high degree of success.
In a word, China's technological route for the development of new energy vehicles must be different from other countries. To surpass it, we must have a concrete embodiment in the development of the technical route.
Third, is China's development of new energy vehicles directly related to the depletion of oil?
At first, there was a reason to promote the development of new energy vehicles, and it was repeatedly mentioned that the world's oil was not enough, and it was said that it would take up to 40 years. However, over the past 20 years, the world’s oil will soon be depleted, and it is slowly disappearing. Later, in a world-class journal on natural science, there was an article saying that Iraq’s oil is endogenous, that is, after crude oil is pumped out of the Earth’s surface, deep oil will automatically “long” out. This is like “wild fire burns, spring breeze is not enough”. Health." Of course, "oil is going to be depleted" is an expert, and Iraq's oil will automatically "long" out," said the expert.
At the beginning, there was another reason why the development of new energy vehicles was related to the "greenhouse climate", that is, the average temperature in the world was slowly rising, mainly related to the car's carbon emissions. However, Trump became the president of the United States, but the United States has withdrawn from the international organization concerned with carbon emissions. The United States is a powerful automobile country and claims to be the most responsible country. It is also the most advanced country in the development of new energy vehicles.
The above examples show that the development of new energy vehicles in the United States is not a necessary reason, even if it is related to "oil is not enough" and "greenhouse climate," and certainly not a sufficient reason.
One of the most important reasons for China's development of new energy vehicles is that the developed countries of the automobile are all developing new energy vehicles, and China cannot fall behind. The modern history of China tells the Chinese people that "backwardness must be beaten." China has chosen a different technology route that does not develop new energy vehicles with other automotive powers. First, China's auto industry needs to set aside a “backward” situation, and second, China must achieve the goal of becoming a powerful automobile country.
IV. Status Quo of China's New Energy Automobile Industry Development
1) In 2017, the production of new energy vehicles was close to 820,000 vehicles, an increase of 58.7% year-on-year, of which:
A total of 560,000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in 2017, of which total sales of pure electric passenger cars were 450,000, and cumulative sales of plug-in hybrid passenger cars were 110,000. Compared with plug-in vehicles, this area has 4.5:1.1 vehicles.
2 In 2017, a total of 152,000 new energy vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 279.39%. In the segment of new energy vehicles in 2017, a total of 148,000 urban distribution vehicles were sold. Municipal sanitation vehicles and other vehicles accounted for the same proportion, with sales exceeding 1800. This area is all pure electric.
The 3 buses (basically pure electric buses and commuter cars) are about 100,000 vehicles. Buses and commuter cars in this area are all pure electric.
(Note: According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on January 11, 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 774,000 and 777,000 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 53.8% and 53.4% year-on-year, respectively. Differences.)
2) In terms of the number of supporting companies for power batteries, there are 83 companies in 2017. Power battery reached 37.4 billion watts per year, an increase of 33% over the same period last year.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on January 11, 2017, the total amount of new energy vehicle power batteries reached 37.06 billion WH, of which 13.98 billion Wh was for passenger cars, accounting for 37.72%, and 14.57 billion Wh for passenger cars. This accounted for 39.31% of the total; the supporting volume of special vehicles was 8.51 billion Wh, accounting for 22.95%. Lithium-ion battery supporting capacity of 36.9 billion Wh, accounting for 99.56% of the supporting amount. Among them, three yuan: 16.56 billion WH, accounting for 44.87% of the lithium-ion battery capacity; lithium iron phosphate: 18.07 billion Wh, accounting for 48.96%; lithium manganese oxide: 1.54 billion Wh, accounting for 4.17%; lithium titanate: 7.4 Billion Wh, accounting for 2%. In 2017, China again became the world's largest market for motive battery applications.
The scale of the new energy vehicle represents the comprehensive level of the industry chain, with an annual production capacity of 820,000 vehicles, an increase of 58.7% year-on-year. It is the world's first level. The power battery reached 37.4 billion watt-hours throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 33%, representing China's power battery industry. The completion of this key technology can support China's pure electric vehicle technology.
V. Development Trend of China's New Energy Automobile Industry
The development of new energy vehicles is a common goal of the automotive industry worldwide. Different countries have different visions for the development of new energy vehicles. China’s vision for the development of new energy vehicles is “from a big automobile country to a strong automobile country”. The technical route for developing new energy vehicles in different countries is also different. The development trend of China's new energy automotive industry is also reflected in the difference in the development of technology.
1 The number of buses decreased compared to 2016, especially for pure electric buses, which fell by 36% compared to 2016. The overall demand for buses in the market has dropped, and pure electric buses have seen a greater decline. The reason is:
(i) The electrification of buses is a general trend. Here is the trend of bus dynamics. The person in charge of the Ministry of Communications proposed on January 20, 2018, the China Electric Vehicles Centenary Forum (2018) that the percentage of new energy buses in 2020 should be adjusted to 60%.
(ii) However, the rapid development of the 500-km long-distance high-speed railway between the metro and urban railways in the city has not increased the demand for passenger cars. The buses mentioned here are the market trends.
(iii) Taking Wuhan as an example, the development of the subway and its contribution to the development of the city are not comparable to buses. Here is the change in the position and role of buses in urban transport structures.
The development trend of buses: Accelerating the speed of electrification, one is breadth and the other is depth. On the basis of electric buses, smart driving technology must be promoted, and it has become an inevitable trend.
2 The electric passenger car (SUV) is a growth model before 2020. For example, in 2017, Dongfeng launched an SUV with a continuous mileage of 350 kilometers. There is no problem to replace the current fuel car taxi; in 2017, pure electric passenger cars have made gratifying achievements in the development of diversification, quality, and sharing.
3 The electric light truck (4.2 long) will be the main vehicle in the city's distribution market, and it is basically clear. For example, the Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd.'s electric light trucks (4.2 long) that last more than 280 kilometers are generally favored by the market.
4 Dongfeng Company originally planned that by 2020, sales of new energy vehicles in the coming year should reach 360,000 (including passenger cars and trucks) and account for 18% of the nation’s 2 million plans. Dongfeng Motor ranked the second in sales and sales in 2017, and SAIC ranked first. By 2020, there will be no shortage of 1.6 million new energy vehicles for SAIC, Dongfeng, FAW, and Chang'an.
5 electric micro-facets in the current urban distribution car market is widely recognized models, generally have the ability to continue 200 kilometers, will be the Ministry of Communications in 2018 to start the green logistics demonstration project necessary models.
6 Three-cell Lithium Battery and Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries are Powered Together, and Their Total Occupies 90% or More, Subsequent Development is Higher Nickel Ternary Lithium Batteries Higher and Higher Ratio, High Nickel Trivalent Lithium Batteries 300Kw/Kg , Has achieved loading.
7 The power battery has a considerable improvement in energy efficiency. From 80Kw/Kg in 2008 to 300Kw/Kg in 2017, the cost reduction rate is basically in line with expectations. In the development of new energy vehicles, the practice of subsidizing state finance is in line with international standards. The main target of subsidies is power batteries. The specific energy of the power battery is increased, and the cost reduction is inevitable.
VI. Several Problems Concerning the Development of New Energy Vehicles Faced with Confusion
(A) How to give consideration to the development of fuel cell vehicles?
The key lies in the "consideration" of the word. To sort out the following points:
1 If China develops fuel cell vehicles with a balance, it should be complementary to the development of pure electric vehicles. How to add it? The buses are fully electrically operated and the charging piles must be in place. Fuel cell buses must be developed and must be equipped with hydrogen refueling stations. As a result, charging piles and hydrogen refueling stations are not complementary relations? There is a single option between the two.
2Hydrogen is not a primary energy source. Basically, it originates from the products after “consumption” of electrical energy. First, industrial by-products, and second, wind power (other energy sources) generate electricity that does not meet the demand for online power. There is a paradox that industrial by-products are rich in hydrogen, they need to be purified (and they must consume electricity), they have to be used for cars, and they must build a network for transporting and supplying hydrogen. The current on-board fuel cell is still used for electric motors after reducing power generation. Why is this (electric-hydrogen-electric) cycle multiple energy forms?
3 What is the positioning of China's development of fuel cell vehicles? Is it tracking? Is it beyond? The key advanced technologies of fuel cell vehicles are in foreign countries and China has no advantage.
4 China's development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, because other countries have advanced technology? Do we have to chase it? With hybrid car technology, Japan is more advanced than us. Why don't we chase it?
5 The cost of hydrogen battery modules is high, and the technology core is foreign. Without national financial subsidies, this car cannot be applied widely. Take Chinese tax money to subsidize foreign technology (products)? There is no reasonable way to explain this to the Chinese people.
(b) In the urban traffic planning, the development space of BRT is already much narrower than before
Buses must be electrified. This automaker has certain initiatives. But how does BRT be electrified? The initiative is not in the vehicle factory.
1 In the first-tier cities, the development of the subway has become a top priority, even though the number of trams is much larger than that of BRT buses. Modern trams are already powered by onboard capacitors (batteries) and are driven by motors.
2 Purely electric BRT buses have less obvious advantages than others. The removal of the bus line for Zhengzhou (BRT) is an example.
3 Follow-up How to develop purely electric BRT buses, the current position is currently vague. Changzhou BRT in the second-tier city is relatively advanced, but the electrification is still a matter for further study.
(3) The key to popularization and application of electric passenger cars is charging convenience?
1 The technical bottleneck of the pure electric vehicle itself is breaking through day by day. Academician Ouyang Minggao introduced it on January 20, 2018 at the China Electric Vehicles Centenary Forum (2018).